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2018 House · KS-4

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 262 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 33.3% · Republican 63.1%

R+29.8

The certified result

Democrat 40.56% · Republican 59.44%

R+18.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33.3 − 63.1 = -29.80
  2. Actual margin = 40.564 − 59.436 = -18.872
  3. Signed miss = -29.80 − (-18.872) = -10.927
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.927| = 10.927

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56545, race ID 333 (538 database).