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2018 House · KS-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 231 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40.9% · Republican 47.8%

R+6.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.79% · Republican 47.64%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.9 − 47.8 = -6.90
  2. Actual margin = 46.794 − 47.640 = -0.846
  3. Signed miss = -6.90 − (-0.846) = -6.054
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.054| = 6.054

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56545, race ID 331 (538 database).