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2018 Governor · KS

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 976 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44.3%

R+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.03% · Republican 42.96%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44.3 = -1.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.028 − 42.957 = 5.071
  3. Signed miss = -1.30 − (5.071) = -6.371
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.371| = 6.371

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56545, race ID 144 (538 database).