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2018 Governor · OR

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 747 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 41.6%

D+5.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.05% · Republican 43.65%

D+6.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 41.6 = 5.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.054 − 43.652 = 6.402
  3. Signed miss = 5.10 − (6.402) = -1.301
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.301| = 1.301

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56543, race ID 157 (538 database).