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2018 Governor · AZ

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 506 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 54%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 54 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-14.160) = 0.161
  4. Absolute miss = |0.161| = 0.161

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56539, race ID 133 (538 database).