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2018 Senate · CT

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 1,201 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 41%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.80% · Republican 39.35%

D+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 41 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.797 − 39.350 = 17.447
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (17.447) = -2.447
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.447| = 2.447

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56538, race ID 98 (538 database).