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2018 Governor · CT

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 1,201 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.10% · Republican 44.41%

D+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.098 − 44.409 = 3.689
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.689) = 0.311
  4. Absolute miss = |0.311| = 0.311

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56538, race ID 137 (538 database).