2018 Senate · FL
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 1,051 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 46%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%
R+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.123) = 1.123
- Absolute miss = |1.123| = 1.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56537, race ID 100 (538 database).