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2018 House · IN-9

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 541 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.52% · Republican 56.48%

R+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.518 − 56.482 = -12.964
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-12.964) = 5.965
  4. Absolute miss = |5.965| = 5.965

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56532, race ID 329 (538 database).