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2018 House · IN-5

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 527 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.24% · Republican 56.76%

R+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.238 − 56.762 = -13.524
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-13.524) = 7.523
  4. Absolute miss = |7.523| = 7.523

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56532, race ID 325 (538 database).