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2018 House · MI-6

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 466 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 46%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.69% · Republican 50.24%

R+4.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 46 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.693 − 50.244 = -4.551
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-4.551) = 1.551
  4. Absolute miss = |1.551| = 1.551

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56531, race ID 370 (538 database).