Skip to content

2018 House · MI-1

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 574 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 54%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.68% · Republican 56.32%

R+12.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 54 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.683 − 56.317 = -12.634
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-12.634) = 0.633
  4. Absolute miss = |0.633| = 0.633

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56531, race ID 365 (538 database).