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2018 House · OH-2

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 431 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 52%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.20% · Republican 57.55%

R+16.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 52 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.197 − 57.555 = -16.358
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-16.358) = 3.357
  4. Absolute miss = |3.357| = 3.357

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56530, race ID 466 (538 database).