Skip to content

2018 House · NY-1

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 838 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 52%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.00% · Republican 45.01%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 52 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.996 − 45.014 = 0.982
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (0.982) = -15.982
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.982| = 15.982

The poll overstated the Republican by 16.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56527, race ID 438 (538 database).