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2018 House · CO-3

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 485 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 53%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.55% · Republican 51.52%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 53 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.553 − 51.518 = -7.965
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-7.965) = -7.035
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.035| = 7.035

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56526, race ID 243 (538 database).