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2018 Senate · RI

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2018-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 416 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 55.3% · Republican 36.3%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.44% · Republican 38.34%

D+23.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.3 − 36.3 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.442 − 38.335 = 23.107
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (23.107) = -4.108
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.108| = 4.108

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56518, race ID 119 (538 database).