Skip to content

2018 Governor · TX

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 1,078 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 54%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.51% · Republican 55.81%

R+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 54 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.508 − 55.807 = -13.299
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-13.299) = -0.701
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.701| = 0.701

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56513, race ID 163 (538 database).