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2018 House · NM-1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 327 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.4% · Republican 41.4%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.13% · Republican 36.33%

D+22.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.4 − 41.4 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.133 − 36.325 = 22.808
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (22.808) = -12.808
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.808| = 12.808

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56508, race ID 431 (538 database).