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2018 Senate · NM

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 936 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 31.5%

D+16.5

The certified result

Democrat 54.09% · Republican 30.53%

D+23.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 31.5 = 16.50
  2. Actual margin = 54.088 − 30.532 = 23.556
  3. Signed miss = 16.50 − (23.556) = -7.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.056| = 7.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56508, race ID 114 (538 database).