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2018 Governor · MI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 822 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.7% · Republican 41.3%

D+10.4

The certified result

Democrat 53.31% · Republican 43.75%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.7 − 41.3 = 10.40
  2. Actual margin = 53.315 − 43.748 = 9.567
  3. Signed miss = 10.40 − (9.567) = 0.833
  4. Absolute miss = |0.833| = 0.833

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56507, race ID 148 (538 database).