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2018 Senate · IN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 975 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 46%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.84% · Republican 50.73%

R+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 46 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.842 − 50.732 = -5.890
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-5.890) = 2.890
  4. Absolute miss = |2.890| = 2.890

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56499, race ID 102 (538 database).