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2018 Senate · AZ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 972 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.345) = 0.656
  4. Absolute miss = |0.656| = 0.656

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56497, race ID 96 (538 database).