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2018 House · NY-24

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 53%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.50% · Republican 43.59%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 53 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.496 − 43.588 = 0.908
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (0.908) = -14.908
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.908| = 14.908

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56495, race ID 461 (538 database).