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2018 Senate · MO

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 1,376 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-5.814) = 1.814
  4. Absolute miss = |1.814| = 1.814

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56493, race ID 109 (538 database).