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2018 Governor · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.31% · Republican 43.75%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.315 − 43.748 = 9.567
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (9.567) = -4.567
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.567| = 4.567

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56488, race ID 148 (538 database).