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2018 Senate · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 46%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.26% · Republican 45.76%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.262 − 45.756 = 6.506
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (6.506) = -0.506
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.506| = 0.506

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56488, race ID 106 (538 database).