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2018 House · NE-1

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 742 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 55%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.64% · Republican 60.36%

R+20.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 55 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.641 − 60.359 = -20.718
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-20.718) = 4.718
  4. Absolute miss = |4.718| = 4.718

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56474, race ID 414 (538 database).