Skip to content

2018 House · NJ-3

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 363 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 46%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.72%

D+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.012 − 48.717 = 1.295
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (1.295) = 1.705
  4. Absolute miss = |1.705| = 1.705

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56465, race ID 421 (538 database).