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2018 House · NY-22

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.18% · Republican 43.84%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.177 − 43.837 = 2.340
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.340) = -1.339
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.339| = 1.339

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56443, race ID 459 (538 database).