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2018 Governor · GA

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 554 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.83% · Republican 50.22%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.833 − 50.222 = -1.389
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.389) = 0.389
  4. Absolute miss = |0.389| = 0.389

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56442, race ID 139 (538 database).