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2018 House · OH-12

GBAO · fieldwork ended 2018-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 570 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.20% · Republican 51.42%

R+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.198 − 51.421 = -4.223
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-4.223) = 4.222
  4. Absolute miss = |4.222| = 4.222

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56430, race ID 476 (538 database).