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2018 Senate · NJ

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 496 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.01% · Republican 42.83%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.007 − 42.828 = 11.179
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (11.179) = -6.179
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.179| = 6.179

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56416, race ID 113 (538 database).