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2018 House · MN-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2018-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 586 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.68% · Republican 50.13%

R+0.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.676 − 50.127 = -0.451
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.451) = 2.451
  4. Absolute miss = |2.451| = 2.451

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56409, race ID 379 (538 database).