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2018 Senate · TX

GBAO · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 50.89%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.325 − 50.893 = -2.568
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.568) = -1.433
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.433| = 1.433

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56386, race ID 121 (538 database).