2018 Governor · FL
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 665 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (-0.395) = 7.395
- Absolute miss = |7.395| = 7.395
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56365, race ID 138 (538 database).