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2018 Senate · FL

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2018-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 1,161 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 46%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (-0.123) = 6.123
  4. Absolute miss = |6.123| = 6.123

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56353, race ID 100 (538 database).