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2018 Governor · FL

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 1,575 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 46.4%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 46.4 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.395) = 1.395
  4. Absolute miss = |1.395| = 1.395

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56344, race ID 138 (538 database).