2018 Governor · FL
SEA Polling & Strategic Design · fieldwork ended 2018-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-0.395) = 6.395
- Absolute miss = |6.395| = 6.395
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56335, race ID 138 (538 database).