2018 Governor · FL
SSRS · fieldwork ended 2018-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 759 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 42%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%
R+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (-0.395) = 12.395
- Absolute miss = |12.395| = 12.395
The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56334, race ID 138 (538 database).