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2018 Senate · MN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 33%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.31% · Republican 36.21%

D+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 33 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.310 − 36.214 = 24.096
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (24.096) = -1.096
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.096| = 1.096

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56330, race ID 107 (538 database).