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2006 Senate · WI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 69% · Republican 24%

D+45.0

The certified result

Democrat 67.31% · Republican 29.48%

D+37.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 69 − 24 = 45.00
  2. Actual margin = 67.307 − 29.477 = 37.830
  3. Signed miss = 45.00 − (37.830) = 7.170
  4. Absolute miss = |7.170| = 7.170

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55822, race ID 1612 (538 database).