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2006 Governor · WI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.70% · Republican 45.31%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.695 − 45.308 = 7.387
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (7.387) = 2.613
  4. Absolute miss = |2.613| = 2.613

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55822, race ID 1360 (538 database).