Skip to content

2006 Governor · WI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.70% · Republican 45.31%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.695 − 45.308 = 7.387
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (7.387) = -3.387
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.387| = 3.387

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55817, race ID 1360 (538 database).