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2006 Governor · TX

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 557 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 22% · Republican 38%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 29.79% · Republican 39.03%

R+9.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 22 − 38 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 29.791 − 39.032 = -9.241
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-9.241) = -6.759
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.759| = 6.759

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55780, race ID 1358 (538 database).