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2006 Senate · TX

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,081 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35.9% · Republican 54.8%

R+18.9

The certified result

Democrat 36.05% · Republican 61.69%

R+25.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35.9 − 54.8 = -18.90
  2. Actual margin = 36.045 − 61.692 = -25.647
  3. Signed miss = -18.90 − (-25.647) = 6.747
  4. Absolute miss = |6.747| = 6.747

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55779, race ID 1606 (538 database).