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2006 Governor · TX

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,081 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 28.5% · Republican 36.7%

R+8.2

The certified result

Democrat 29.79% · Republican 39.03%

R+9.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28.5 − 36.7 = -8.20
  2. Actual margin = 29.791 − 39.032 = -9.241
  3. Signed miss = -8.20 − (-9.241) = 1.041
  4. Absolute miss = |1.041| = 1.041

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55779, race ID 1358 (538 database).