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2006 Governor · TX

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 36%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 29.79% · Republican 39.03%

R+9.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 36 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 29.791 − 39.032 = -9.241
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-9.241) = -1.759
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.759| = 1.759

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55777, race ID 1358 (538 database).