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2006 Governor · TX

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 532 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 36%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 29.79% · Republican 39.03%

R+9.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 36 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 29.791 − 39.032 = -9.241
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-9.241) = -0.759
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.759| = 0.759

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55776, race ID 1358 (538 database).