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2006 Governor · SC

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 399 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 56%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.79% · Republican 55.12%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 56 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.789 − 55.118 = -10.329
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-10.329) = -1.671
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.671| = 1.671

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55744, race ID 1355 (538 database).