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2006 Senate · PA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 755 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.7% · Republican 43.8%

D+8.9

The certified result

Democrat 58.64% · Republican 41.28%

D+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.7 − 43.8 = 8.90
  2. Actual margin = 58.637 − 41.283 = 17.354
  3. Signed miss = 8.90 − (17.354) = -8.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.454| = 8.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55709, race ID 1603 (538 database).